Video gaming shake-out favours industry giants as GTA VI looms, says Bernstein

June 23, 2026 - 01:21

The global video games industry is entering a period of consolidation that is likely to favour the biggest publishers and developers, according to analysts at Bernstein. In a new report, the firm argues that a market shake-out is underway, driven by rising development costs, shifting player habits, and the looming release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Smaller studios and mid-tier publishers are expected to face increasing pressure, while industry giants like Tencent, Sony, and Microsoft are positioned to absorb talent and intellectual property at lower valuations.

Bernstein notes that the blockbuster launch of GTA VI, expected in 2025, will likely dominate consumer attention and spending for months. This creates a challenging environment for smaller titles trying to compete for the same audience. Meanwhile, the cost of making high-budget games has soared past hundreds of millions of dollars, making it harder for independent teams to break even without a guaranteed hit.

The analysts also point to a wave of layoffs and studio closures in 2023 and 2024 as evidence of the ongoing correction. Major companies have cut thousands of jobs, while others have shelved projects to focus on proven franchises. Bernstein suggests that the survivors of this shake-out will be those with strong balance sheets, established franchises, and the ability to weather a volatile market. For smaller players, the path forward may involve selling to larger firms or pivoting to niche genres that big publishers overlook.